Humans Suck at Estimating

by Nikolozi Meladze

Michael Wolfe:

Let's take a hike on the coast from San Francisco to Los Angeles to visit our friends in Newport Beach. I'll whip out my map and draw our route down the coast:

The line is about 400 miles long, we can walk 4 miles per hour for 10 hours per day, so we'll be there in 10 days. We call our friends and book dinner for next Sunday night, when we will roll in triumphantly at 6 p.m. They can't wait!…

A beautiful story with no ending. Every software engineer can identify with this situation. The reality is we humans are really bad at estimating.